For a head coach to succeed in European football, the right time, place, and people are all essential.
A strong figure like Gao Shen can calmly choose the right moment and environment, then rely on his own ability to integrate the dressing room and even the entire club, thereby achieving harmony among people.
But there are exceptions to everything.
Guardiola is an exception in choosing to coach Bayern Munich.
Of course, this cannot be pinned entirely on who is right or wrong, as there are many unpredictable factors.
In the 12/13 season, Heynckes's Bayern Munich finished second in the Champions League group stage and were strong in the league, but they struggled in the Champions League group phase, including a 1-3 away loss to BATE Borisov.
Heynckes was very old and his contract ran to 2013. He publicly stated he no longer had the energy and planned to step down after fulfilling his contract, informing Bayern's hierarchy in advance.
That was the premise.
In this situation, Bayern had to prepare early, especially with a coach like Guardiola unemployed at the time. After Rummenigge and Hoeness confirmed Heynckes's decision, they immediately began the search.
Out of respect, everything was done in secret, including contacting Guardiola in New York through Ferguson, which no one knew from start to finish.
After several talks, Guardiola wanted to try his ideas at Bayern and accepted the invitation.
But once the contract was signed, the ever-present media got wind of it and broke the story, creating an awkward situation. Heynckes was still in charge, but Guardiola was set to take over.
It was similar to now, with Van Gaal preparing to coach Manchester United and Hiddink preparing to coach the Dutch national team.
What made it worse was that no one expected that in the second half of the season, after Heynckes fine-tuned the team, they were unstoppable. They won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal, reached the Champions League final again, and almost won the treble.
In that situation, Heynckes revealed his intention to stay for another year, but Bayern had already signed Guardiola, so they had to refuse.
By then, everyone understood it was a chain of missteps.
Bayern's management, the players, Heynckes, and Guardiola had no misunderstandings among themselves. It was the media and fans who spun conspiracy theories.
But in that context, Guardiola's position was embarrassing and passive.
He took over a team that had almost won the treble two seasons running.
From the moment he arrived, there was only one path to success. He had to win the treble, or produce something even greater.
Everyone knows that is impossible to guarantee.
Worse still, after taking over Bayern, Guardiola faced more problems.
The first issue was player adaptation.
Both Guardiola and Bayern's management had a realistic aim for Bayern under Guardiola, which was dominance.
They hoped Guardiola would build Bayern into a dominant machine.
Bayern have long had a reputation for being tough rather than refined. Their collective strength is high, but they lack variety, especially control over tempo. This has been a long-standing issue for Bayern and even German football.
Hitzfeld's Bayern were famous for their defense. Later, when Klinsmann was appointed, Bayern tried to change style. Especially after seeing the wave of reform Klinsmann led with the national team, Bayern became more determined.
After Klinsmann failed, Bayern chose Van Gaal, still taking a reformist path.
It is clear that from Klinsmann to Van Gaal, despite successes and failures, Bayern's direction was set, reaching a peak under Heynckes.
In fact, Heynckes succeeded by improving and modifying on Van Gaal's base.
Guardiola continued Van Gaal's system, hoping to go further.
Did Bayern succeed in this regard?
The answer is clear.
In Gao Shen's previous life, Guardiola won the Bundesliga three seasons in a row and reached three straight Champions League semi-finals. That report card was fine.
The only regret was that he did not win the Champions League.
They were always one of the most competitive contenders.
So what was the problem?
We return to the original point.
Bayern's players struggled to adapt to Guardiola's style.
Not only at Bayern, but later at Manchester City as well.
The success of tiki-taka at Barcelona was never just a tactical success. It was also the triumph of exceptional players and a gifted coach.
What does that mean?
Fans like to attribute success to a superstar, a head coach, or a specific tactic. That is wrong.
Football is a team sport and a systems sport.
Any team's success comes from the joint effort of players, tactics, the head coach, and even the management behind them.
When Guardiola brought his ideas to Bayern and Manchester City, he ran into the most serious issue, the players.
He would never find another Messi, Xavi, Iniesta, or Busquets.
At Bayern, he was frustrated to find that while they could keep the ball, their attack lacked threat. Why?
Because there was no change of rhythm.
Why was there no change of pace?
At Barcelona, there were many ways to accelerate, like Xavi's pass, Iniesta's carry, or Messi's dribble.
Bayern did not have those.
Even in basic security under pressure, Bayern did not meet his requirements.
Many would ask why Guardiola did not use Schweinsteiger, an excellent holding midfielder. Under Heynckes, he was the best in Europe.
Would you rather use Lahm or Alaba in midfield?
This is a tactical consideration.
Heynckes used more of a double pivot. Schweinsteiger was one of the two, with a ball-winner next to him, such as Vidal or Khedira.
But Guardiola's 4-3-3 plays with a single pivot.
In a single pivot, especially in big matches, Schweinsteiger's weaknesses are fully exposed.
…
"Let me show you some data."
Carlos Vargas switched the PPT on the big screen, listing comparative numbers.
"Schweinsteiger has been dispossessed 1.6 times per match in the Bundesliga this season, with a peak of 2.3 in 10/11. He also averages 1.3 turnovers per match this season, with a pass completion of 90 percent."
"We can compare that with others."
"Xabi Alonso is dispossessed 0.3 times and makes 0.2 turnovers per match in La Liga. In the Champions League, both figures are 0.1, and his pass completion is 92 percent."
"Toni Kroos is dispossessed 0.4 times and makes 0.4 turnovers per match in La Liga. In the Champions League, he is dispossessed 0.5 times, makes 0.3 turnovers, and completes 94.2 percent of his passes. Note that Toni Kroos plays higher up."
"Barcelona's Busquets is dispossessed 0.5 times in La Liga and makes 0.4 turnovers. In the Champions League, he is dispossessed 0.4 times and makes slightly more turnovers at 0.7. His completion is 94.6 percent."
"Even within Bayern, when Lahm plays as a holding midfielder, he is dispossessed 0.5 times, makes 0.4 turnovers, and completes 94.3 percent."
By this point, the data clearly showed why Guardiola used Lahm in midfield. Schweinsteiger made too many errors, especially under pressing.
The whole world knows that against Barcelona you press Busquets, and against Real Madrid you press Xabi Alonso.
Even when opponents keyed on them, Busquets and Xabi Alonso still maintained that level. By comparison, are Schweinsteiger's errors acceptable?
At Real Madrid, Casemiro averages 0.5 dispossessions and 0.6 turnovers per match. Illarramendi averages 0.4 for both. Their role is as backups for the single pivot.
In a big match, if the single pivot is dispossessed or misplaces a pass, disaster follows.
This is why Guardiola misses Toni Kroos so much.
If Kroos had not gone to Real Madrid, he would have been Guardiola's best option in midfield.
But is Toni Kroos flawless?
No. Toni Kroos has the excellent traits of German players, precision, focus, and execution.
He also shares a common German weakness, a lack of creativity and tempo changes.
You can see it in the contrast between Kroos and Modric. The former is steady and imposing, the latter delicate, inventive, and able to change rhythm.
If all midfielders were like Kroos, rhythm would be a problem, the game would be stable with no surprises. If all were like Modric, stability would be a problem.
That is why the best combination for Real Madrid is Kroos and Modric.
But the problem is that this Bayern has neither Kroos nor Modric.
Even someone as capable as Guardiola cannot conjure those profiles.
And if Real Madrid face Bayern, the answer is clear.
"No need to overthink it. We have set up two targeted training sessions. At the Bernabéu, we will crush them in midfield and take them away. That is how we will beat Bayern Munich."
Gao Shen was very confident and determined.
"In addition, our front line needs to work on immediate counter-pressing. Same as before. If we do not win it, we delay. Bayern's front line cannot play fast right now, and we can exploit that."
After identifying Bayern's weak point, the targeted plan was clear. The next step was focused drills.
Gao Shen was also curious.
"I am very curious now, does he dare to play Lahm as the holding midfielder?" Gao Shen smiled mischievously.
(To be continued.)